Is poker a skill or just a game of chance?

Skill or gambling?

I love the game of poker and learning strategy. Luck in poker is a multifaceted issue .But I’m a little unsure whether it’s truly about skill or just a game of chance. We make decisions based on position and strategy, but what if the bad guy isn’t playing in position? We end up guessing whether he’s bluffing or not. Isn’t that just luck in poker? Or is it gambling?

Personally, I enjoy the thrill of it, so whether it’s luck in poker or skill, I’m fine with that. But let’s talk about how things really are.

Poker is certainly a game of skill.

To become a winning player, you need to master the technical aspects of the game, including the value of hands and draws, the importance of position, the importance of playing the right range of hands, equity in calling bets, bluffing, and so on.

The key to poker is investing money with a mathematical advantage. You don’t have to be a math genius to figure out that pocket aces are a favorite to beat 72 offsuit.

But you can get lucky and win despite it, so it’s all luck again, right?

No. 72 offsuit can sometimes beat pocket aces (12.58% of the time, to be exact). But over a long enough sample, a guy who keeps shoving with trash hands will eventually go broke.

At the same time, you also have to understand that luck is also a factor in poker, or, as experienced players say, a game of variance.

Jesse May, author of one of the few quality fictional books about poker, Shut Up and Deal, explains the essence of the game through the mouth of the main character, Mickey Dane:

Poker is a combination of luck and skill. People think the hardest part is mastering all the intricacies of skill, but they’re wrong. The main thing is to master luck. It’s a whole philosophy. Understanding luck in poker is a philosophy, and some will never master it. This is what distinguishes poker from other games. This is why everyone returns to the table time and time again.

Jesse May, “Shut Up and Deal” (1998)

The easiest way to understand this apt observation is the last line. If the game required only skill, then it would be like chess—no amateur would play it for money, at least not for long. Incidentally, this is one of the reasons why you shouldn’t scold anyone for poor play. After all, ultimately, you want your opponent to make mistakes and sometimes win through luck, no matter how painful it may be for you in the early minutes. The luck factor in poker is nothing more than the source of your future income.

There’s another important aspect to the above idea: you must master luck or variance so that you don’t look back on a lost hand, a bad session, or a losing month and succumb to despondency and defeatism.

It’s much better to reminisce to analyze and improve your game. Could you have played that hand more skillfully? Can you learn something new about your opponent based on how they played against you? Absolutely. You need to calmly analyze your play after sessions and correct any mistakes.

However, don’t look back if it hurts you or evokes negative emotions that negatively impact your game and hinder your progress.

Luck in poker is an integral part of both poker and our entire lives. Luck is like gravity—it simply exists, and you must live and work within that reality. Playing smart and thoughtful poker means mastering luck, and by doing so, you’ll discover the game’s limitless possibilities.

People who believe they are inherently unlucky, or who attribute other people’s success to external circumstances and “sheer luck,” miss the big picture and typically lack agency in their own lives.